The F365 Expectations Table ranks every Premier League club from Aston Villa to Man Utd

Will Ford 21 May 2024 7:46 AM

Man City are sixth in the F365 Expectations Table.

Manchester City may have won the Premier League but they only just sneak into the European spots of the F365 Expectations Table, which sees Sheffield United and Burnley pip Manchester United.

1) Aston Villa
Aston Villa fans having a full-on party when 4-0 down at Selhurst Park on Sunday and singing along with “Eze’s on fire” gives a pretty clear indication of their enjoyment of this season and how much they’re looking forward to what’s to come.

They’ve earned a place in the Champions League/European Cup for the first time in 42 years having only been promoted back to the top flight in 2019. Yes, they’re a Big Club, and should always be closer to Europe than the Championship, but that’s still an extraordinary achievement from Unai Emery and his players. What must Stevie G be thinking?

2) Liverpool
Finished fifth last season and most were expecting a slight improvement. The midfield rebuild went about as smoothly as any Liverpool fan could have hoped and Virgil van Dijk’s return to form, Jurgen Klopp’s announcement and the displays of His Kids in the absence of star names were all key to a title challenge that lasted until they limped from the race against Everton.

3) Arsenal
Mikel Arteta will have some regrets – not least (we hope) when his mask slipped after defeat to Newcastle to reveal why we (or I) really don’t like him – but he’s led Arsenal brilliantly again and if they continue on the same trajectory they should win the title next year.

It all got too much for them last season but on this occasion it was just a case of Manchester City being ever so slightly better. There’s no shame in that.

4) Bournemouth
Three points from their opening nine games and none from their last three, all of which count against Andoni Iraola and Bournemouth, who would be fifth otherwise.

More than a few people worried for Bournemouth, and most of the rest appeared to be weirdly angry with them, after they sacked Proper Football Man Gary O’Neil and replaced him with someone they didn’t know, who was therefore bad.

Bournemouth have finished higher in the Premier League – 9th in 2016/17 under Eddie Howe – but they’ve never won more than the 48 points they’ve earned in Iraola’s debut season.

5) Crystal Palace
With Palace sat on 30 points after 30 games with a nasty looking run-in we questioned whether they would make it an 11th consecutive Premier League season finishing in the 40s. But rather than struggling to get there, Palace very nearly broke into the 50s, and if Oliver Glasner can persuade the star names to stick around they surely will next term.

Palace have picked up 24 points in 13 games since Glasner took over, which puts him 13th on the all-time list of Premier League managers according to Points Per Game with 1.85, just above Carlo Ancelotti (1.84). The form under Glasner spread across the whole season would have been enough for Champions League qualification.

6) Manchester City
Everyone but the football hipsters and Arsenal dreamers predicted Manchester City would win the title and Manchester City did win the title. Four on the bounce is something, as is not losing since December 6 and winning your last nine games by an aggregate score of 33-6, but as we wait on the 115 charges. City must be made to suffer in some manner, and we can think of no better way than handing them an Expectations Europa Conference League place (Europa League if they lose the FA Cup final to Manchester United).

7) Tottenham
The wheels fell off in the 4-1 defeat to Chelsea back in November, at which point Tottenham were top of the table and therefore ‘title contenders’, of sorts. Running repairs through the rest of the season, combined with pretty pathetic attempts from members of the Big Six/Seven to mount a serviceable challenge, saw Spurs qualify for the Europa League, which is about as good as any reasonable fan could have hoped at the start of the campaign.

Things got a bit weird towards the end there, as Big Ange lamented the “fragile foundations” of a club he clearly perceives to be built primarily on contempt for their noisy neighbours, having got very angry at a Spurs fan calling for their team to throw the game against Manchester City.

But like his team, Postecoglou’s done more right than wrong, with the vibes at Tottenham as positive as they’ve been since Mauricio Pochettino left in 2019.

8) West Ham
They finished ninth with 12 more points than they accrued last season, and we’re not entirely sure how. A goal difference of -14 (the sixth-worst in the Premier League) suggests their league position is rather flattering, as does conceding more goals (74) than all but the three relegated sides.

Everyone seems pretty content though. David Moyes leaves the Hammers in a far better position than when he joined, with a European title in the bag and an excellent group of forward players the fans are desperately hoping Julen Lopetegui can use better.

9) Luton
It’s almost impossible to talk about Luton and Rob Edwards without slipping into condescension – ‘They got relegated, but what a way to do it’ etc etc. – and we’re essentially doing that with their place here in the top ten.

But they’ve been a credit to the Premier League and got less than they deserved in their best period around Christmas and into the new year before an injury crisis proved particularly damaging thanks to their meagre resources. Luton may be back; Edwards definitely will.

10) Wolves
Gary O’Neil’s side were ninth and just five points off sixth with ten games to go, at which point there was not unreasonable talk of a manager of the season nomination and some spurious – and actually quite insulting – links to become an assistant coach at Manchester United. “I’m always going to be a head coach,” was O’Neil’s response.

Quite how bad Wolves have been with the pressure off after they had already achieved their primary goal of avoiding relegation, has been swallowed by Wolves vs VAR, which will culminate in the most eagerly anticipated Premier League vote next month.

11) Chelsea
It’s better to build momentum through the season than start it well and capitulate, and there’s no doubt that Chelsea ended the campaign in the best form that we’ve seen since Mauricio Pochettino joined the club in the summer, with five wins in their last five and just one defeat since mid-February.

Recency bias appears to be a thing for everyone but Todd Boehly and Behdad Eghbali, if you believe what Rio Ferdinand’s “hearing” (we rarely do). And if the Chelsea owners are indeed thinking of sending Poch packing, we’re wondering how much better they were hoping the season might be, and – perhaps more crucially – whether someone else could have outstripped his achievements while having the players fully behind him.

12) Fulham
We’re not sure even the Fulham fans would know how to answer the question: Are Fulham any good? And cards on the table, when writing this list and coming up with 19 teams, it took us a good two minutes to work out they were the 20th.

Consecutive 5-0 wins over Nottingham Forest and West Ham in December provides as good an indication as any of how hard to place Marco Silva’s team have been in a season that’s also featured victories over Arsenal and Tottenham but taking just one point from two games against Burnley.

13) Everton
Things looked more than a little dicey at the start of April after a run of no wins in 13, before turning Dychey as Everton beat four teams in and around them at the bottom of the table as well as claiming that famous win over Liverpool to – in the end – leave them well clear of the relegation zone. Without the eight-point deduction they would have been above Bournemouth in 12th.

14) Newcastle
If Eddie Howe can somehow combine the goalscoring feats of this season with the defensive solidity of last, Newcastle could be involved in a title race in 2024/25. Only Manchester City (96), Arsenal (91) and Liverpool (86) scored more than their 85 goals this term, but they conceded nearly twice as many as in Howe’s first full season at the club.

He will need a deeper squad, fewer injuries, or both, and it would also be nice if one or two of his best players aren’t pillaged, which appears to be unavoidable and more of a concern to Newcastle fans than their club’s mediocre performance this season. Fair enough.

15) Brighton
It was always going to be tough for Brighton to match or even get close to their achievement last season having lost both Moises Caicedo and Alexis Mac Allister in the summer, with a shallow squad set for a first foray into European football.

It’s also pretty clear the speculation over Roberto De Zerbi’s future hasn’t helped, while significant injuries to Solly March, Pervis Estupinan, Julio Enciso and Kaoru Mitoma have hit them hard.

16) Brentford
It all looked a bit bleak in mid-March after an extraordinary run of 14 defeats in 18 games, with Ivan Toney’s long-awaited return not having quite the impact Thomas Frank might have hoped.

Having done very well in their first season in the Premier League and bettering it in their second, they’ve rather bumped back down to earth in their third. Significant investment may be required to prevent them from circling the drain.

17) Nottingham Forest
A very odd season featuring some outstanding football, mainly from Morgan Gibbs-White and Callum Hudson-Odoi, points deductions, their owner chasing a match official and the Gladiators referee being hired before denying his involvement in quite possibly the most bonkers club social media post in Premier League history.

They’ve spent £280m in two seasons in the top flight and finished 16th then 17th.

18) Sheffield United
They avoided the acrimony of the lowest-ever Premier League points tally in February after victory over Luton and then took a very relaxed view of the remainder of the season, picking up just three points from their last 14 games, instead becoming the team to concede the most goals (104) in a Premier League season.

They kept one clean sheet, in the 1-0 win over Brentford in December, conceded more than five goals on seven occasions and more than three 17 times. They’re spared bottom spot because (nearly) everyone knew they were doomed before a ball was kicked.

19) Burnley
Apparently sticking to a philosophy to the detriment of your football club does indeed pay off, as Vincent Kompany – who’s stuck to his values to take Burnley down – is now rumoured to be on the radars of both Brighton and Bayern Munich. Incredible.

They won five games of football and three of those came against the teams going down with them.

20) Manchester United
16th in the xG table and that feels like a far fairer reflection of Manchester United’s season than eighth. That flattering position is their worst in Premier League history, with 60 points their worst ever tally and 14 games the most they’ve ever lost.

Only Sheffield United (671) conceded more than their 660 shots, which averages out at more than 17 per game. Erik ten Hag can blame injuries or whatever else but This Is Manchester United and that was pathetic.

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